Capability
Source · Hard Constraints vs Policy Objectives
What is the central argument of “Hard Constraints vs Policy Objectives”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
In EU defence-industrial regulation, clarity depends on one fundamental separation: what the law requires versus what the law intends. This dossier addresses that separation, because many errors in procurement, compliance, and investment screening begin when policy language is mistaken for enforceable criteria. The instruments contain…
Capability
Source · The Regulatory Map of Relevant Firms
What is the central argument of “The Regulatory Map of Relevant Firms”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
A — Question and Function of the Dossier The current EU defence-industrial framework does not simply fund projects; it creates a structured perimeter of addressable institutional demand. The practical consequence is that firms become “relevant” in different ways depending on how their corporate and product configurations intersect with…
Capability
Source · The Sovereignty Premium: Attracting Patient Capital through the STEP Seal
What is the central argument of “The Sovereignty Premium”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The emergence of the Sovereignty Premium in 2026 marks a decisive shift in how the international financial markets perceive and value industrial risk within the European Union. Central to this transformation is the Sovereignty Seal (STEP Seal), established under Regulation (EU) 2024/795 , which acts as a high-quality label for projects…
Capability
Source · The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP): Strategic Reorientation through Regulation and Investment
What is the central argument of “The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP)”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) marks a turning point in the EU’s strategic industrial policy, offering a €1.5 billion framework to accelerate defence procurement, boost industrial resilience, and deepen cross-border cooperation. Designed to reinforce the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB), EDIP…
Capability
Source · Systemic and Industrial Deficiencies in the European Armoured Vehicle Sector
What is the central argument of “Systemic and Industrial Deficiencies in the European Armoured Vehicle Sector”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
This analysis examines the structural deficiencies undermining Europe's ability to scale and modernise its armoured vehicle sector, at a time when geopolitical pressures and battlefield lessons from Ukraine demand urgent rearmament. Despite the growing demand for tanks and armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs), Europe faces significant…
Capability
Source · Certified risk assessment: physical vulnerability audits as a gateway to the Sovereignty Seal
What is the central argument of “Certified risk assessment”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The strategic landscape of European industrial defense in 2026 has introduced a mandatory convergence between regulatory compliance and financial eligibility, placing certified risk assessments at the center of the sovereign ecosystem. Under the framework of Directive (EU) 2022/2557 (CER) and Regulation (EU) 2025/1106 (SAFE), the…
Capability
Source · European Algorithmic Sovereignty: AI Integration, Software Fragmentation, and Europe’s Deep-Tech Firms
What is the central argument of “European Algorithmic Sovereignty”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The industrial posture of the European Union in the domain of artificial intelligence is increasingly defined by the ownership of core algorithmic architectures and software stacks. In the current geopolitical environment, a reliance on external AI platforms introduces risk exposure regarding data integrity and the autonomy of…
Capability
Source · SAFE Technical Assistance: Financing the Preliminary Design Phase
What is the central argument of “SAFE Technical Assistance”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
Entry into the European defense and security ecosystem is no longer solely a matter of technical merit; it is increasingly defined by the economic sustainability of the pre-investment phase. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) often find that structuring an industrial project capable of attracting AAA-rated capital requires a level…
Capability
Source · NATO’s Multi-Lateral Support to Ukraine
What is the central argument of “NATO’s Multi-Lateral Support to Ukraine”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
In June 2025, NATO defence ministers met in Brussels to address Europe’s security amid the Ukraine war. They agreed to far-reaching increases in collective capabilities – including a 30% boost in equipment targets – and to link these new requirements to firm defence plans for deterring Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the…
Capability
Source · EU Funding Architecture for Strategic Sectors
What is the central argument of “EU Funding Architecture for Strategic Sectors”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The EU’s 2021–2027 financial framework channels large budgets into defence , digital transformation , dual-use capabilities , and emerging technologies . New instruments have been created or expanded in response to strategic priorities (e.g. support for Ukraine and technological sovereignty) and the COVID recovery. The European Defence…
Capability
Source · Strategic Autonomy: Hidden Champions and the European PCB and Advanced Packaging Capability Gap
What is the central argument of “Strategic Autonomy”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The foundation of European strategic autonomy is increasingly dictated by the physical layer of the digital ecosystem, specifically Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) and advanced packaging. While high-level policy often focuses on semiconductor design, the manufacturing of these physical substrates remains a critical bottleneck for the…
Capability
Source · Space and Microspace as Emerging Disruptive Technologies in Defense
What is the central argument of “Space and Microspace as Emerging Disruptive Technologies in Defense”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
Space has become a critical operational domain for modern militaries, providing essential services – from global communications and navigation to missile warning and intelligence – that underpin warfighting and strategic deterrence . Since NATO adopted its 2019 Space Policy, Allies have recognized space “as a new operational domain…
Capability
Source · What “Winning Firm” Means in Regulatory Terms
What is the central argument of “What “Winning Firm” Means in Regulatory Terms”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
European defence is increasingly organised as an institutional market shaped by law, not as an open commercial arena shaped only by price and performance. Access to demand, co-financing, and industrial scaling mechanisms now depends on whether a company fits a defined regulatory perimeter and can evidence that fit under procurement and…
Capability
Source · Dual-Use Innovation in NATO/EU Defence: Leveraging Civilian Technology for Security
What is the central argument of “Dual-Use Innovation in NATO/EU Defence”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
NATO and EU nations increasingly view dual-use innovation — technologies that serve both civilian and military needs — as critical for strategic autonomy and alliance security. Recent trends show surging investment: for example, European ‘Defense, Resilience, and Security’ tech recently accounted for about 10% of all venture capital…
Capability
Source · Exail Technologies: Industrial and Strategic Profile
What does Exail Technologies do, and which defence and dual-use capability does it bring to European strategic autonomy?
Exail Technologies is a French high-tech industrial group formed in 2022 by merging ECA Group and iXblue. With over 2,000 employees worldwide and operations in 80+ countries, it combines ECA’s maritime robotics expertise (USVs, AUVs, ROVs) and iXblue’s navigation, photonics and inertial technologies. The group designs and manufactures…
Capability
Source · Additive Manufacturing in Defense
What is the central argument of “Additive Manufacturing in Defense”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
Additive manufacturing (AM), or 3D printing, builds parts layer-by-layer from digital designs and is being embraced by militaries as a transformative tool. It is “no longer science fiction” – as the European Defence Agency notes, AM is already reshaping the defence sector by enabling on-site spare production and new designs. U.S. leaders…
Capability
Source · Method and the Three Firm Types
What is the central argument of “Method and the Three Firm Types”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
This article opens the series by setting out a method for reading EU defence-industrial law as a practical selection system rather than as abstract legal commentary. The central claim is that, in an increasingly institutionalised defence market, regulatory eligibility and demonstrable compliance shape access to demand and de-risking more…
Capability
Source · Drehscheibe Deutschland: Implementing OPLAN DEU for Allied Rapid Deployment
What is the central argument of “Drehscheibe Deutschland”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The European security architecture has undergone a radical transformation since February 24, 2022, marking a watershed moment in history. The proclamation of the Zeitenwende by Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled Germany’s definitive pivot from cautious diplomacy to logistics. During the Cold War, the Federal Republic served as a frontline…
Capability
Source · Fincantieri’s Underwater Strategy: Ambitions in Underwater Technology and Defense
What is the central argument of “Fincantieri’s Underwater Strategy”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
Fincantieri, Italy’s state-controlled shipbuilding group, has launched a comprehensive underwater strategy to expand its presence in subsea technology and defense. The company is pivoting beyond traditional shipbuilding into the underwater domain – a field Folgiero, Fincantieri CEO , likens to “what space was 40 years ago,” poised for…
Capability
Source · An Empire of the Straits, an Empire of the Shores
What is the central argument of “An Empire of the Straits, an Empire of the Shores”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
A strait is a line of water between two shores. This is its nature, and in it lies the whole secret of its politics. A fleet can cross a passage, and can even watch it for a time, but it cannot hold it: sooner or later it must coal, repair and anchor somewhere. To control a strait in a stable and permanent way one must possess its…
Capability
Source · Privatised Power: When Strategic Infrastructure Goes Public
What is the central argument of “Privatised Power”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on 1 April 2026 and is targeting a June listing at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, with a $75 billion raise — the largest IPO ever conducted . This note is not a financial assessment of the offering. It does not take a view on price, multiples, or growth assumptions. It addresses a…
Capability
Source · The Wages of Empire
What is the central argument of “The Wages of Empire”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
How the tribute of the allies financed Athens’ salaried multitude, and how that multitude—made dependent on the state and pliable in the hands of demagogues—bent the Delian League from within, turning it from an inclusive order into an extractive machine Earlier essays reconstructed the metamorphosis of the Delian League from an…
Capability
Source · The irresistible attraction
What is the central argument of “The irresistible attraction”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
A single idea has captured the defence imagination on both sides of the world: that a new generation of cheap, rapidly producible, seemingly revolutionary systems — drones, autonomous craft, loitering and coastal missiles — has overturned the old economy of force. In Europe the conviction was forged in Ukraine, where uncrewed surface…
Capability
Source · Diverging Threat Perceptions and the Global Defense Industry: Strategic Signaling and Asymmetric Rearmament After the U.S. Strike on Iran
What is the central argument of “Diverging Threat Perceptions and the Global Defense Industry”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
This report focuses on a specific aspect of the June 21, 2025, U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities: the heightened perception of insecurity among major authoritarian powers. Rather than evaluating the legitimacy or stability-inducing potential of the operation, the analysis aims to examine how states such as North Korea, China, and…