The Strait and the Hegemon
Is Hormuz to the present order what Messina was to Carthage and Singapore to Britain?
10 pages · PDF · 19 June 2026 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
A maritime order is decided at a strait. Carthage's long ruin began not with a defeat in open water but with the war fought over the Strait of Messina and the loss of Sicily that followed; Britain's began with the fall of Singapore in 1942, the fortress built to lock the eastern seas, whose loss severed the empire in two.
In each case the thalassocracy did not decline evenly, across the whole sea at once, but broke at a single point — a passage that slipped from its grasp. The question this poses for our own moment is whether Hormuz is that point.
Key questions this report answers
- How does the report use the fall of Sicily for Carthage and Singapore in 1942 for Britain to argue that thalassocracies break at a single strategic point?
- Why does the report frame the Strait of Hormuz as the potential breaking point for the contemporary maritime order?
- What does the historical pattern of maritime powers declining at a strait rather than evenly imply for present-day hegemony?
- What strategic and energy-security conclusions follow for actors dependent on the passages a maritime order controls?
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