Capability
The Strait and the Hegemon
What is the central argument of “The Strait and the Hegemon”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The Strait and the Hegemon: A maritime order is decided at a strait. Defence-finance analysis; 10-page sourced DFM PDF report.
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Original DFM publication · DFM Analysis report · 2026-06-19
A maritime order is decided at a strait. Carthage's long ruin began not with a defeat in open water but with the war fought over the Strait of Messina and the loss of Sicily that followed; Britain's began with the fall of Singapore in 1942, the fortress built to lock the eastern seas, whose loss severed the empire in two.
In each case the thalassocracy did not decline evenly, across the whole sea at once, but broke at a single point — a passage that slipped from its grasp. The question this poses for our own moment is whether Hormuz is that point.
This analysis answers: What is the central argument of “The Strait and the Hegemon”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets? What does this mean for European defence funding, procurement and investment decisions? How mature and defensible is the position described in “The Strait and the Hegemon”? Which European actors, programmes and funding instruments are most exposed?
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Original DFM analysis
The Strait and the Hegemon
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FAQ
What is The Strait and the Hegemon?
In each case the thalassocracy did not decline evenly, across the whole sea at once, but broke at a single point — a passage that slipped from its grasp.
Why does The Strait and the Hegemon matter for European defence?
The question this poses for our own moment is whether Hormuz is that point.
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