From Resilience to Antifragility: Deterrence as the Strategic Foundation
5 pages · PDF · 22 August 2025 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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What this report covers
Technologies: Autonomous Systems, Robotics & Swarms. A sourced, structured 5-page analysis for European defence and dual-use decision-makers, from the DFM research desk and built on official and primary sources.
About this report
In recent years, Western political and strategic discourse has made extensive use of the concept of resilience, presenting it as a key response to contemporary threats. Yet when analyzed through the lens of strategic logic, this concept reveals its limits. Resilience means absorbing a blow and restoring the previous state, but it imposes no significant cost on the attacker.
An aggressor who inflicts damage without suffering consequences has no incentive to stop; on the contrary, they can continue striking, gradually wearing down the victim. Resilience, in other words, ensures survival but not security, because it does not dissuade attack.
Key questions this report answers
- Why does the report argue that resilience ensures survival but not security because it imposes no cost on an attacker?
- How does antifragility differ from merely absorbing a blow and restoring the previous state?
- Why is deterrence positioned as the strategic foundation that resilience alone cannot provide?
- What does the shift from resilience to antifragility imply for how Western states structure defensive investment and posture?
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (22 August 2025). You receive a 5-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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