The 'Phase Transition' of the International Order
6 pages · PDF · 22 January 2026 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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What this report covers
Countries: United States. A sourced, structured 6-page analysis for European defence and dual-use decision-makers, from the DFM research desk and built on official and primary sources.
About this report
The easing of transatlantic tensions observed at Davos should not be interpreted as a restoration of the previous equilibrium. Even the hypothetical possibility that the United States might shift from a benign order-producing power to a source of coercion toward its own allies fundamentally alters strategic expectations.
Once the reliability of the central guarantor is questioned, dependency is no longer perceived as protection but as exposure. This change reshapes the long-term calculations of European and Asian partners, regardless of short-term diplomatic calm. The system adjusts not to what has happened, but to what has become conceivable.
Key questions this report answers
- Why should the easing of transatlantic tensions at Davos not be interpreted as a restoration of the previous equilibrium?
- How does even the hypothetical possibility of the United States shifting from an order-producing power to a source of coercion alter strategic expectations?
- Why does questioning the reliability of the central guarantor transform dependency from protection into exposure?
- How does this "phase transition" reshape the long-term calculations of European and Asian partners regardless of short-term diplomatic calm?
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (22 January 2026). You receive a 6-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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