The New Economics of Scalable Ammunition Production
10 pages · PDF · 18 November 2025 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
The war in Ukraine has upended assumptions about munitions supply, driving a structural surge in ammunition demand across NATO and the EU. In high-intensity combat, artillery shells, rockets and missiles are expended at rates unseen in decades, quickly exposing how Western stockpiles and production had dwindled after the Cold War .
Russia’s invasion demonstrated that deterrence now requires credible stockpiles and output capacity: Moscow expanded its wartime ammunition production tenfold (to over 4 million shells annually by 2025), outstripping NATO’s pace and risking a loss of deterrence credibility if Allies cannot catch up .
Key questions this report answers
- How has the war in Ukraine driven a structural surge in ammunition demand across NATO and the EU?
- What is the new economics of scalable ammunition production given how Western stockpiles and output dwindled after the Cold War?
- How does Russia's roughly tenfold wartime expansion to over 4 million shells annually by 2025 challenge deterrence credibility?
- What industrial and investment implications follow for scaling Western artillery, rocket and missile output?
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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Methodology, format & delivery
DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (18 November 2025). You receive a 10-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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