European Defense Sector Outlook 2025: Post-Putin Geopolitical Scenarios
26 pages · PDF · 09 May 2025 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
European defense spending has surged to Cold War levels amid Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions. NATO allies and even traditionally neutral states have reversed decades of “peace dividend” cuts in order to rearm and reinforce deterrence.
As of 2024, military expenditure in Europe jumped 17% to $693 billion, with every European country (except Malta) increasing its defense budget. Defense contractors across the continent – from Sweden’s Saab to Britain’s BAE Systems – are enjoying record order backlogs, and European defense stock indices have outperformed broader markets.
Key questions this report answers
- What is driving the surge in European defence spending to Cold War levels, and how is it reshaping order backlogs and defence equities?
- How would an authoritarian-continuity scenario with sustained Russian threat shape the European defence sector?
- How would a chaotic Russian transition versus a stabilisation and normalisation scenario alter demand and risk?
- How can market participants navigate uncertainty using a scenario-based strategy?
Inside this report
- Introduction
- Scenario 1: Authoritarian Continuity and Sustained Russian Threat
- Scenario 2: Chaotic and Unstable Transition in Russia
- Scenario 3: Stabilization and Normalization of Russian Policy
- Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty with a Scenario-Based Strategy
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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Methodology, format & delivery
DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (09 May 2025). You receive a 26-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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