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The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine
What is the central argument of “The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets?
The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine has marked. Defence-finance analysis; 5-page sourced DFM PDF report.
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Original DFM publication · DFM Analysis report · 2025-10-16
The war in Ukraine has marked a structural rupture in Europe’s understanding of deterrence and security. For more than three decades, the continent’s stability had rested on the assumption that the post-1989 order was irreversible and that large-scale conventional warfare was a phenomenon of the past.
This belief allowed European states to downsize their armed forces, dismantle reserves, reduce stockpiles, and outsource the ultimate guarantee of their security to the United States. The re-emergence of interstate war, driven by a revisionist power willing to occupy territory and absorb losses on a massive scale, has shattered that confidence.
This analysis answers: What is the central argument of “The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine”, and why does it matter for European defence and dual-use markets? What does this mean for European defence funding, procurement and investment decisions? How mature and defensible is the position described in “The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine”? Which European actors, programmes and funding instruments are most exposed?
Key takeaways
- The re-emergence of interstate war, driven by a revisionist power willing to occupy territory and absorb losses on a massive scale, has shattered that confidence.
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Original DFM analysis
The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine
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FAQ
What is The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine?
For more than three decades, the continent’s stability had rested on the assumption that the post-1989 order was irreversible and that large-scale conventional warfare was a phenomenon of the past.
Why does The Transformation of European Deterrence after the War in Ukraine matter for European defence?
This belief allowed European states to downsize their armed forces, dismantle reserves, reduce stockpiles, and outsource the ultimate guarantee of their security to the United States.
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