Offset Agreements 2.0 on NATO’s Eastern Flank

This short analytical note frames Offset Agreements 2.0 on NATO’s Eastern Flank as a question of European strategic autonomy, where a capability becomes strategically and financially relevant through alignment with recognised priorities, not the technology alone. The transformation of defence procurement on NATO’s eastern flank marks a structural shift in how military power, industrial capacity, and sovereignty are conceived and operationalised. Poland and the Baltic states are no longer treating arms acquisitions as isolated transactions aimed solely at filling capability gaps, but as long-term instruments for reshaping their domestic defence-industrial ecosystems. In an environment defined by high-intensity warfare, disrupted supply chains, and strategic uncertainty, dependence on external producers for maintenance, sustainment, and technological control has emerged as a critical vulnerability. As a result, procurement has become a lever to secure production capacity, technical know-how, and lifecycle autonomy within national borders. Why this capability becomes strategically and financially relevant is developed in full in the original DFM publication on DFM Analysis.