From Capability Target to Order Book

For three decades, European air and missile defence was a residual capability, sized for expeditionary wars rather than the defence of national territory. Russia's invasion of Ukraine ended that assumption in a single season: saturation attacks by missiles, loitering munitions and cheap drones proved that the contested medium in a European war is the air above the homeland.

Integrated air and missile defence is now ranked first in both the NATO Capability Targets agreed at The Hague and the EU's Readiness 2030 priorities, and that ranking is already reshaping where demand, and capital, flow.

This analysis answers: Why has integrated air and missile defence become Europe's first-order problem, ranked first in NATO Capability Targets and EU Readiness 2030 priorities? How is the capability target institutionally translated into programmes, and how does the cost-per-kill constraint shape the capability stack? Which prime, tier-2 and tier-3 companies do the institutional filters elevate, and where is value created upstream? How are order books, re-rating and capital movement responding, and what institutional triggers will move capital next?