Production Is Deterrence
Industrial Capacity and the New Material Foundations of Conventional Credibility
18 pages · PDF · 12 May 2026 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
The credibility of conventional deterrence is no longer determined only by deployed forces, technological superiority or the quality of weapons available at the opening of a crisis.
The war in Ukraine, the debate over a possible Taiwan contingency, depleted inventories, long missile-production timelines and the renewed European focus on ammunition, missiles and air-defence capacity have exposed a more fundamental condition: a power deters only if its adversaries believe it can continue producing, replacing and sustaining military capability under pressure. Production has therefore become part of strategic credibility.
Key questions this report answers
- How has production capacity become a variable of strategic credibility alongside deployed forces and weapon quality?
- How do lessons from Ukraine, depleted inventories and long missile-production timelines reshape industrial deterrence?
- Which actors and mechanisms (LaPlante's codification, Replicator, demand signals) reveal hidden bottlenecks, and where does Europe lag?
- What analytical and capital-allocation implications follow from treating production as part of deterrence?
Inside this report
- Industrial deterrence as a strategic variable
- Ukraine and the return of industrial warfare
- From LaPlante to institutional codification
- Empty bins and precision-strike economics
- Demand signals, Replicator and hidden bottlenecks
- Europe’s partial translation of the paradigm
- Analytical implications for Defence Finance Monitor
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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Methodology, format & delivery
DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (12 May 2026). You receive a 18-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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