From Capability Target to Order Book
How NATO's air-defence target is turning strategic priority into European capital — down to the suppliers nobody names.
20 pages · PDF · 02 June 2026 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
For three decades, European air and missile defence was a residual capability, sized for expeditionary wars rather than the defence of national territory. Russia's invasion of Ukraine ended that assumption in a single season: saturation attacks by missiles, loitering munitions and cheap drones proved that the contested medium in a European war is the air above the homeland.
Integrated air and missile defence is now ranked first in both the NATO Capability Targets agreed at The Hague and the EU's Readiness 2030 priorities, and that ranking is already reshaping where demand, and capital, flow.
Key questions this report answers
- Why has integrated air and missile defence become Europe's first-order problem, ranked first in NATO Capability Targets and EU Readiness 2030 priorities?
- How is the capability target institutionally translated into programmes, and how does the cost-per-kill constraint shape the capability stack?
- Which prime, tier-2 and tier-3 companies do the institutional filters elevate, and where is value created upstream?
- How are order books, re-rating and capital movement responding, and what institutional triggers will move capital next?
Inside this report
- 1. The priority: why air and missile defence became Europe’s first-order problem
- 2. The institutional translation: from capability target to programme
- 3. The capability stack and the cost-per-kill constraint
- 4. The companies the filters elevate
- 5. The tier-2 and tier-3 layer: where the priority creates value upstream
- 6. The capital movement: order books, re-rating, and the 2026 reassessment
- 7. What to watch: the institutional triggers that will move capital next
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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Methodology, format & delivery
DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (02 June 2026). You receive a 20-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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