Emerging Technologies In NATO And EU Defence Planning

NATO and EU defence planners have made clear that rapidly evolving science and technology will reshape warfare by 2040. NATO explicitly notes that “technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems and quantum technologies are changing the world and the way NATO operates” . Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are therefore core to NATO’s strategy – Allies have pledged to “foster the development and adoption of new technologies” and to maintain a technological edge via joint initiatives like the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and a €1 billion NATO Innovation Fund. The Alliance’s 2022 Strategic Concept similarly commits to increasing investment in EDTs so that NATO retains its interoperability and military edge.

In parallel, the EU’s Capability Development Plan (CDP) beyond 2040 identifies long-term trends (climate, demography, geopolitics) and explicitly incorporates EDTs (AI, autonomy, space, cyber, biotech, etc.) as critical enablers of future capability requirements. Key emerging technologies repeatedly appear across NATO, EDA, DARPA, RAND, SIPRI and IISS analyses. Artificial Intelligence & Big Data: AI/ML and data analytics underpin smart sensors, decision-support and autonomous systems. NATO lists AI (with data and autonomy) as a near-term disruptor, RAND and EDA similarly emphasize AI’s role in ISR and command.

AI-enabled cyber/electronic warfare and information operations are also highlighted (e.g. automation of cyber activities for spectrum dominance). Robotics & Autonomous Platforms: Unmanned vehicles and robotic systems across air, land and sea will proliferate. NATO expects “Enhanced RAS” (robotic/autonomous systems) to reach TRL 5–6 with deployment by ~2025–2030, and full human–machine teaming at TRL 3–4 by 2030–35. These include drone swarms, unmanned surface/underwater vessels, and self-driving logistics.

Space & Satellite Systems: Space-based capabilities are now an operational domain. Small, commercial satellites and constellation networks will provide ubiquitous ISR, communications and navigation.