Europe’s nuclear question: deterrence, dependency and the search for strategic sovereignty
A Report on the Debate over an Independent European Nuclear Deterrent, the Roles of France, the United Kingdom and Germany
21 pages · PDF · 24 February 2026 · Licensed single-user copy, watermarked to the buyer
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About this report
The debate over a European nuclear deterrent — long confined to the margins of strategic discourse, treated as a taboo in Berlin, a doctrinal provocation in Paris, and a distraction in London — has entered the mainstream of European security policy with unprecedented urgency in 2025 and early 2026.
Three interlocking forces have driven this shift: the sustained signals from the Trump administration that the United States may no longer unconditionally guarantee European security under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty; the expiration of the New START arms control treaty on February 5, 2026, eliminating the last major U.S.-Russia nuclear verification regime; and Russia’s demonstrated…
Key questions this report answers
- How have Trump-administration signals over Article 5 guarantees reshaped the European nuclear-deterrent debate in Berlin, Paris and London?
- What are the strategic consequences of the New START treaty's expiration on 5 February 2026 for European security?
- How do dependency on the US umbrella and the search for strategic sovereignty interact in a possible European deterrent?
- What options and constraints face Europe if it pursues an autonomous nuclear-deterrent posture?
Who it's for
Strategy, corporate-development and investment teams that need an ecosystem-level view — budgets, industrial capacity and technology landscapes — before committing capital or capacity.
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DFM reports are built from primary and official sources — TED procurement notices, CORDIS and the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, EIB operations, the NATO Innovation Fund portfolio, SIPRI data, official budget documents and company disclosures — read together with the underlying legal texts. Sources are cited in the document; it reflects them as of its publication date (24 February 2026). You receive a 21-page PDF, watermarked to you on every page, delivered on the confirmation page and by e-mail immediately after checkout (personal link valid 72 hours, up to 5 downloads). Guest checkout, single-user licence — Terms of Sale.
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