The Shipyard Gap: Mapping European Dry-Dock Capacity Against Projected Naval Demand to 2030

This report examines the structural relationship between naval power and sustainment capacity in Europe, focusing on whether existing dry-dock infrastructure, maintenance and repair throughput, and associated industrial ecosystems are sufficient to support NATO and EU naval force levels through 2030. It analyses how increased operational tempo, higher utilisation rates, and the prospect of prolonged high-intensity conflict are placing sustained pressure on European shipyards and maintenance systems that were largely designed for peacetime assumptions. By mapping the distribution of dry-dock capacity, identifying key industrial and workforce bottlenecks, and assessing the alignment between strategic objectives, governance frameworks, and financing instruments, the report treats naval sustainment as a determinant of readiness, deterrence credibility, and operational endurance, rather than as a secondary logistical function.

Dry Docks as the Hidden Linchpin of Deterrence: European naval power faces an often-understated constraint: the limited capacity of its repair yards and dry docks to sustain fleets under strain. As NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept affirmed, security in the maritime domain is “key to our peace and prosperity,” underpinning deterrence and crisis response. Yet credible maritime deterrence requires more than just advanced warships on paper; it hinges on the ability to keep those vessels ready and at sea.

This sustainment layer – the network of dry docks, maintenance facilities, skilled workers, and suppliers that repair and overhaul warships – is emerging as a critical bottleneck. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and heightened great-power tensions have driven NATO navies into higher operational tempo, reflected in the sustained activity and frequent deployments of NATO Standing Naval Forces since 2022. Warships are sailing harder and longer, accumulating wear faster, even as emerging threats like undersea infrastructure attacks demand persistent naval presence.