Liquidity Events in Dual‑Use: Who Will Buy Defense Startups When IPOs Are Off the Table?

The structure of the report reflects this objective. It opens with an analysis of the structural limitations of IPOs in defense markets and the implications for venture capital returns. The core sections then map the universe of potential acquirers, offering a typology that distinguishes industrial consolidation strategies from financial roll-up dynamics. Each category is explored through a strategic lens—examining acquisition rationales, technology absorption logic, and how institutional priorities drive transaction behavior. The report highlights specific actors, outlines capital deployment trends, and includes select case studies not as historical overviews but as forward indicators of appetite and behavior. A final section synthesizes strategic signals from government policies, procurement frameworks and investment patterns to present plausible acquisition scenarios over the next five years. The report is designed as a decision-making tool: it provides venture investors, corporate strategists and dual-use founders with an operational map of who will likely drive liquidity across the defense innovation ecosystem. For high-growth tech startups, IPOs are a classic exit – but in the defense realm, IPOs have largely been “scarce” and challenging [2] . There are several reasons why going public is difficult for dual-use ventures: Market Volatility and Valuations: Defense tech companies often face mismatches in valuation expectations that impede IPOs and even M&A deals [3] [4] . Public investors tend to be cautious with firms that depend on government contracts or unproven tech.